DATAWe use a database of 1000+ Security Class Action settlements and dismissals to build our statistical models.
A group of claims is selected from this database based on similarities to the case being analyzed.
The similarities used are:
type of suit (10B5, Erissa)
type of business the target company engages in.
size of the target company's business (by revenue and asset size)
STATISTICAL TABLESFrom the list of cases we create statistical tables. These tables summarize the damages, legal expenses and the maximum settlement possible.
These values are then used to build probability distributions for the damages in the case.
For legal expenses a statistical distribution is built from legal bills as a percentage of settlement and legal bills as a function of the total time spent on a case.
The assumption is also made that plaintiffs and defendants have similar billing rates.
SIMULATIONA simulation of the case is created from the statistical tables.
The case is simulated 10,000 times and the results summarized in our reports.
For the stock price changes and stock option price changes, only the percentage change in the stock price is used. No simulation is performed.
DISCLAIMEROur analysis should NOT be treated as legal advice or financial advice.
We analyze the odds of what is likely to happen in order to help our clients make better decisions.